Panelists in The American Institute of Architects’ latest Consensus Construction Forecast expect a modest 1% increase in overall building spending for 2026, rising to just 2.2% in 2027.
While the overall outlook is flat, performance varies significantly by category. Spending on commercial facilities is expected to rise by 3% this year, followed by a 3.5% increase in 2027. In contrast, manufacturing spending is projected to decline by 3.9% this year, with an additional 0.9% drop next year. Institutional facilities are anticipated to see steady growth, with spending increasing 2.7% this year and 2.8% in 2027.
Data centers are expected to experience strong growth over the next two years, while traditional office spending, excluding data centers, is projected to decline sharply during the same period. Retail facilities, including warehouses, are forecast to see minimal growth this year, with only modest gains in 2027. Institutional categories, known for more stable spending, show mixed results. Healthcare facilities are projected to achieve mid-single-digit growth this year and next, while spending on education and amusement and recreation facilities is expected to remain nearly flat over both years. Read the full forecast here.
