AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Predicts Strong Growth

The American Institute of Architect’s Consensus Construction Forecast panel has optimistic projections for nonresidential building spending in late 2023 and beyond, and the news is generally positive — with a caveat. The panel — comprised of leading economic forecasters — is projecting that spending on buildings will increase by 20% this year, a torrid pace not seen since the construction boom years leading up to the Great Recession.

Leading the charge is the manufacturing sector, where spending is projected to increase more than 50% over last year’s exceptional performance. Construction spending in the healthcare sector is projected to increase over 10% through the end of 2023, compared to last year. And in 2024, it is expected to increase 3%.

Though spending on nonresidential buildings increased by more than 10% last year, once inflation is factored in, real increases were much lower. This means that while companies are investing heavily in new buildings and renovations, investments may not translate into comparable economic growth or employment opportunities. However, with inflation in construction moderating, there is optimism among industry professionals about what lies ahead for nonresidential building projects this year and beyond. For more details, visit aia.org.