The AIA Consensus Construction Forecast projects annual growth in the 3.5 percent to 4.0 percent range for the remainder of 2017, as well as for 2018, with a slower growing commercial/industrial market and an institutional sector facing several challenges.
While some slowdown in the commercial sector was anticipated for 2017 and 2018, it was expected to be offset by acceleration in the institutional sector. However, year-to date growth in spending for institutional buildings is at 3 percent, well below expectations when the year began. For more details, visit aia.org.
“Despite billings at architecture firms performing quite well this year, the larger construction industry is facing a range of issues,” said AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker, Ph.D., Hon. AIA. “The somewhat weaker outlook is driven by several factors, some dealing with the broader U.S. economy, some dealing with general construction industry fundamentals and some dealing with weakness in specific construction sectors.”
| Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts | 2017 | 2018 |
| Overall nonresidential building | 3.8% | 3.6% |
| Commercial / industrial | 8.8% | 4.0% |
| Retail | 10.0% | 4.6% |
| Office space | 8.9% | 4.0% |
| Hotels | 6.1% | 2.4% |
| Industrial facilities | -6.6% | 1.1% |
| Institutional | 3.5% | 4.1% |
| Amusement / recreation | 7.1% | 3.0% |
| Education | 4.9% | 4.8% |
| Public safety | 1.4% | 3.7% |
| Healthcare facilities | 0.9% | 3.5% |
| Religious | -9.2% | -1.0% |
